Tommaso Procopio — Notes https://tommasoprocopio.com/notes/ Notes on markets, research and portfolio decisions. en Wed, 16 Sep 2026 16:26:40 +0000 What analyst target prices actually tell you https://tommasoprocopio.com/process/what-target-prices-tell-you/ https://tommasoprocopio.com/process/what-target-prices-tell-you/ Wed, 16 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0000 We replaced the current consensus target with one published three months earlier. It predicted just as well — which says the implied upside is mostly the price in the denominator. What survives the test, and what I do with it. Healthcare is the tape, but it is not one trade https://tommasoprocopio.com/notes/healthcare-is-the-tape/ https://tommasoprocopio.com/notes/healthcare-is-the-tape/ Tue, 15 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0000 Five of the ten strongest clusters in our thematic map are healthcare — and the two halves of the sector are behaving in opposite ways. Short duration is winning https://tommasoprocopio.com/notes/short-duration-is-winning/ https://tommasoprocopio.com/notes/short-duration-is-winning/ Tue, 08 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0000 The tape is repricing the discount rate, not growth — and that distinction decides when the move ends. Energy is back on the tape, and the order is the information https://tommasoprocopio.com/notes/energy-is-back-on-the-tape/ https://tommasoprocopio.com/notes/energy-is-back-on-the-tape/ Thu, 03 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0000 Upstream first, services second, the toll roads last — a sequence that says the market is pricing duration, not just the level of the oil price. The tape and the sell-side disagree, and that disagreement is the map https://tommasoprocopio.com/notes/tape-and-sell-side-disagree/ https://tommasoprocopio.com/notes/tape-and-sell-side-disagree/ Tue, 01 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0000 Two rankings of the same clusters — one from price, one from consensus — come out as near mirror images. What that does and does not tell you. Leadership has rotated, and the tape is confirming it https://tommasoprocopio.com/notes/leadership-has-rotated/ https://tommasoprocopio.com/notes/leadership-has-rotated/ Mon, 24 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 Rotation, not distribution — with a macro engine behind it, and Jackson Hole as the test. July didn't punish risk, it punished concentration https://tommasoprocopio.com/notes/july-punished-concentration/ https://tommasoprocopio.com/notes/july-punished-concentration/ Tue, 11 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 The semiconductor and AI complex fell from the top of the cross-section to its bottom in three weeks — and net exposure was no hedge against it. Tech is no longer one trade https://tommasoprocopio.com/notes/tech-is-no-longer-one-trade/ https://tommasoprocopio.com/notes/tech-is-no-longer-one-trade/ Thu, 30 Jul 2026 08:00:00 +0000 The hardware layer of the AI trade is cooling while the services layer picks up momentum — and breadth leans towards caution. Volatility is telling three different stories, and oil is adding a fourth https://tommasoprocopio.com/notes/three-stories-one-message/ https://tommasoprocopio.com/notes/three-stories-one-message/ Sat, 16 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 Volatility is normalising at a different speed in every region, while the Brent curve points the other way. Dispersion, not chaos. Not weak enough to be obvious, not strong enough to be safe https://tommasoprocopio.com/notes/volatility-regime-shift/ https://tommasoprocopio.com/notes/volatility-regime-shift/ Thu, 16 Apr 2026 08:00:00 +0000 A simple framework for reading a fragile regime: weakening trend, elevated volatility, and why a rebound is not a regime change.